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Drought - Blog Posts
How Climate Change Showed Up in 2021
2021 was tied for the sixth-hottest year since modern record keeping began. We work together with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to track temperatures around the world and study how they change from year to year.
For decades, the overall global temperature has been increasing because of human activities. The last decade has been the warmest on record. Each individual year’s average temperature, however, can be affected by things like ocean circulation, volcanic eruptions, and specific weather events.
For instance, last year we saw the beginning of La Niña – a pattern of cooler waters in the Pacific – that was responsible for slightly cooling 2021’s average temperature. Still, last year continued a long-term trend of global warming.
Globally, Earth’s temperature in 2021 was nearly 2°F warmer than the late 19th Century, for the seventh year in a row.
The Record
Studying 142 Years
Since 1880, we can put together a consistent record of temperatures around the planet and see that it was much colder in the late-19th century. Before 1880, uncertainties in tracking global temperatures are larger. Temperatures have increased even faster since the 1970s, the result of increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Tracking Millions of Individual Observations
Our scientists use millions of individual observations of data from more than 20,000 weather stations and Antarctic research stations, together with ship- and buoy-based observations of sea surface temperatures, to track global temperatures.
Reviewing Multiple Independent Records
Our global temperature record – GISTEMP – is one of a number of independent global temperature records, all of which show the same pattern of warming.
The Consequences
Everywhere Experiences Climate Change Differently
As Earth warms, temperature changes occur unevenly around the globe. The Arctic is currently warming about four times faster than the rest of the planet – a process called Arctic amplification. Similarly, urban areas tend to warm faster than rural areas, partly because building materials like asphalt, steel and concrete retain heat.
Droughts and Floods in Warmer Weather
More than 88% of the Western US experienced drought conditions in 2021. At the same time, communities in Western Europe saw two months’ worth of rain in 24 hours, breaking records and triggering flash floods. Because a hotter climate means more water can be carried in the atmosphere, areas like the Western US suffer drought from the increased 'thirstiness' of the atmosphere, while precipitation events can become more extreme as the amount of moisture in the atmosphere rises.
Sea Levels Continue to Rise
Melting ice raises sea levels around the world, as meltwater drains into the ocean. In addition, heat causes the ocean water to expand. From 1993 to today, global mean sea level has been rising around 3.4 millimeters per year. In 2021, sea level data from the recently launched NASA/ESA Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich mission became available to the public.
There is Hope
“This is not good news, but the fact that we are able to track this in real time and understand why it’s changing, and get people to notice why it’s changing and how we can change things to change the next trajectory, that gives me hope. Because we’re not in the dark here. We’re not the dinosaurs who are unaware the comet is coming. We can see the comet coming, and we can act.” – Dr. Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA GISS, where the global temperature record is calculated
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Cape Town was on the verge of running out of water. The South African city of 3.7 million people had suffered years of drought. But after nearly running dry earlier this year, the reservoirs are now rising thanks to rain, conservation efforts, and engineering fixes.
The city’s largest reservoir—Theewaterskloof—holds 40 percent of Cape Town’s water storage capacity, so it's a good barometer for the amount of water available. Natural-color images, captured by Landsat 8, show the change in water levels at Theewaterskloof between July 22, 2017, and July 9, 2018.
Read more HERE.
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Historic drought in California affects more than California. Local impacts of climate change have broader implications.
Ongoing drought conditions have the prompted the U.S. Agriculture Department to declare a federal disaster area in more than 1,000 counties covering 26 states. That's almost one-third of all the counties in the United States, making it the largest disaster declaration ever made by the USDA. The result is skyrocketing corn, wheat and soybean prices.
Contemplating the climate in a dry well.
©Robin Fifield 2023.
Secano. Wild Carrot.
©Robin Fifield 2023.
Secano. Summer Dried Grasses.
©Robin Fifield 2023.
Oroville Dam and the California Drought
The spillway is to increase runoff to 45,000 CFS starting Wednesday, where it previously was at 15,000 CFS.
Oroville Dam was in the news in February, when increased rains produced a problem with water release. The regular spillway removes dam water overages. When the dam water reaches it’s maximum height, at 960’, the highest dam in America begins using the emergency spillway.
Oroville Dam’s emergency spillway went into use February. The news found the emergency spillway seemed insufficient and an evacuation was called by DWR. 180,000 were evacuated, and crowded into churches, Evacuation Centers, and friends homes outside the dams area. It was chaos. Some had only an hour’s notice. Some were diverted after evacuating. They all got out. After about a week, officials said it was safe to go back, and residents returned to their homes.
The Oroville Dam evacuation of February proved to be a harbinger of what was possible after the 5 year California drought. Climate Change caused heavy rains to appear.
It also damaged the spillway. A lot. The Oroville Dam Spillway was broken in half. Water removal from the spillway had increased to 100,000 CFS, but was now decreased, eventually to zero, while DWR officials checked to see just how bad it was, up close. It was found that ‘it needed fixin’, and Governor Brown went to Washington to ask for funds. That happened and California was going to get it’s dam spillway repaired.
Hundreds of millions of dollars were expected for the repair. Those contracts were appointed, and spillway reconstruction was begun in April 2017. Oroville is to expect completed reconstruction of the spillway by November.
David Schaedler 5/8/17