Curlycupgumweed - Welcome All :)

Embroidery stitch tutorial by Pam Ash Designs

some foxes

*sad walrus noises*

EDIT: It occurs to me that those little pictures will probably never load.

I....I um.... I've got 13,652 likes to go through now........

Honey… Don’t do this to yourself again…

Nah, do whatever you want

Waking up on November 1st is literally like walking through a door from Halloweentown to Christmastown

Woah

Every day next week will be the same backwards: 5/10/15 5/11/15 5/12/15 5/13/15 5/14/15 5/15/15 5/16/15 5/17/15

Tumblr in 6 seconds 

Are you perchance working on a comic?

Like this? "🖍" Would love to see one of your oc's!

Fffffffwaah thank you so much~!

Here’s my edgy orphan, Silas, who lives on the streets of London around the 1850′s…ish. He’s half human and half Genecian (a race of shape-shifters, it’s an alternate universe), so he’s often treated as subhuman because of his mixed blood. That’s why he’s pretty…angsty. But if you get past the scowl, he’s just a marshmallow who needs some hugs and love.

Survivorship Bias

I have posted about survivorship bias and how it affects your career choices: how a Hollywood actor giving the classic “follow your dreams and never give up” line is bad advice and is pure survivorship bias at work.

When I read up on the wikipedia page, I encountered an interesting story:

During WWII the US  Air Force wanted to minimize bomber losses to enemy fire. The Center for Naval Analyses ran a research on where bombers tend to get hit with the explicit aim of enforcing the parts of the airframe that is most likely to receive incoming fire. This is what they came up with:

So, they said: the red dots are where bombers are most likely to be hit, so put some more armor on those parts to make the bombers more resilient. That looked like a logical conclusion, until Abraham Wald - a mathematician - started asking questions: 

- how did you obtain that data? - well, we looked at every bomber returning from a raid, marked the damages on the airframe on a sheet and collected the sheets from all allied air bases over months. What you see is the result of hundreds of those sheets. - and your conclusion? - well, the red dots are where the bombers were hit. So let’s enforce those parts because they are most exposed to enemy fire.  - no. the red dots are where a bomber can take a hit and return. The bombers that took a hit to the ailerons, the engines or the cockpit never made it home. That’s why they are absent in your data. The blank spots are exactly where you have to enforce the airframe, so those bombers can return.

This is survivorship bias. You only see a subset of the outcomes. The ones that made it far enough to be visible. Look out for absence of data. Sometimes they tell a story of their own.

BTW: You can see the result of this research today. This is the exact reason the A-10 has the pilot sitting in a titanium armor bathtub and has it’s engines placed high and shielded.